With the fall of cable, why did not Iran move until the moment to make the situation in Afghanistan?
1. The beginning of Iran is trying to avoid any escalation with the Taliban, because it is aware that things are subject to the control of the movement on the country in the near future, and therefore the escalation means that Iran will face in the future, a religious country an intentional, and Iran has a lot.
2. Iran is trying to gain time to restructure the Afghan Plany, worsen by recruiting new fighters, or restricting some fighters from Syria, so they do not think of the movement to prepare so well, especially and they began to think about cloning experience (steadfastness of tribal troops) In preventing the fall of Herat, however, the Taliban quickly after the withdrawal of the Afghan army, along with the idea of arming the tribes that began to raise arms in the face of the movement.
3. Iran is aware that the attempt to produce a new Afghan popular mobilization is a very difficult issue in Afghanistan, despite its invitation, for several reasons, most notably the lack of a Shiite asset in Afghansan, in addition to the lack of strategic depth Iran directly connecting Iran The spread of the "Shiites of Hazara", which means that the opportunity to sustain this crowd is very difficult.
4. The largest fear facing Iran in non-escalation, far from the refugee, boundaries and others, the problem should succeed in the case of confrontation with Iran, in moving the armed Baloch movements in southeastern Iran, where these movements are linked, and highlighted the Army of Justice in IP An ideology and methodology with the Taliban, and is currently engaged in intermittent confrontations with the Revolutionary Guards.
5. Iran is currently trying to establish an idea that the movement is not much different from Iran's goal, in termination of the American presence in the region, so she is trying to abandon the movement across this path, and is trying to remove the idea that it is a state that supports nearby movements only, but it is Support for all movements of freedom in the world, regardless of its ideological and corporal orientation.
6. Iran is currently betting next to its military choice, on the political role that the North Afghanistan coalition can be played after Taliban's control, this coalition includes a group of allied tribes against the Taliban and is supported by the commander of the Jerusalem Corps Ismail.
7. Iran is aware that the Taliban anti-movement means the imposing of Pakistan and Turkey, which means strategically forming a new bordering situation in the South Asian region. Iran excludes its position in the Belt and Road initiative, opposite the rise of a Pakistani Turkish axis on the east Arab Israeli from the West.
14/08/2021 06:21 pm